BILLBOARD-2

THЄ ЄXISTЄNTIΛL CHRONICLЄS

►About | ►Explore | ►Links | ►Updates | ►Alerts

'Birth' Box-Office Tracking Low; VP Debate Ratings Guessing Game; Relativity for Sale

October 04, 2016

What's news: An 8-year journey to the screen. A record $17.5M Sundance sale. Then a resurfaced college rape trial scandal. Now Nate Parker's The Birth of a Nation is finally hitting 2,100 theaters this weekend, and so far it isn't tracking to crack a $10M debut. Plus: A Hollywood ending to a Chinese Theater dispute and why Kaine-Pence won't match Biden-Palin in ratings. — Matthew Belloni and Erik Hayden.

Box Office: Nate Parker's Big Moment

After triumph and controversy, how will Nate Parker's The Birth of a Nation actually fare with moviegoers? Pamela McClintock's forecast:

The title will open in roughly 2,100 theaters this weekend at the North American box office in an ambitious bid to win over art house audiences and mainstream moviegoers alike.

Conservative estimates show the slave-rebellion drama opening in the $7M-$8M range, although some tracking services have it approaching $10M.

Comparisons are difficult: Films such as 12 Years a Slave didn't open nationwide at first; Birth of a Nation's per-screen average will be one metric. Initially, Fox Searchlight intended to open the pic in 1,500 to 1,800 locations, but it has expanded those plans, thanks to theater owners who haven't been scared off by the controversy surrounding Parker over his involvement in a 1999 rape case.

Generally speaking, Fox Searchlight, like other specialty distributors, opens the majority of its titles in select theaters in order to build word of mouth. The danger of opening Birth nationwide is that it could disappear quickly.

Elsewhere in film...

► For sale: Relativity Studios, financially troubled but with lucrative output deals. Six months after emerging from bankruptcy, CEO Ryan Kavanaugh has hired EMP and Zolfo Cooper to help with the sale and began fielding offers over the weekend.

► Disney's Gigantic finds directors. The animated take on the Jack and the Beanstalk fairy tale, set for Nov. 2018, has enlisted Inside Out writer Meg LeFauve as co-director along with Tangled co-helmer Nathan Greno.

► Girl on the Train, reviewed. The weekend's other big opener, starring Emily Blunt and directed by Tate Taylor, revolves around a murder case. Chief critic Todd McCarthy's verdict: "morose, grim and intensely one-dimensional thriller."

► James Cameron's Alita: Battle Angel nabs villain. Mahershala Ali, recently seen in Marvel’s Netflix series Luke Cage, is in talks to join the growing cast of Fox’s sci-fi action film. Shooting is due to begin this month in Austin, Texas.

↱ DiCaprio at the White House: The Revenant star talked climate change with the president last night, taking a jab at Trump: "If you do not believe in climate change, you do not believe in facts or in science or empirical truths ... and therefore, in my humble opinion, you should not be allowed to hold public office." ↲

► Chevy Chase to star in raunchy comedy. The Community actor and comedian is set to star in the road movie by Boundless Pictures. Written by newcomer Connor Martin, it centers on three best friends who lose a drug kingpin's stash.

► Boston film fest unveils winners. The New England-based fest named Jon Voight-starrer American Wrestler: The Wizard as best film, while Frank Marshall-produced doc Finding Oscar earned best documentary honors. Full list.

► Exec revolving door: Andy Kim has been named CFO of Participant Media, which he is joining from The Weinstein Co., where he had been serving in the same role. Meanwhile, David Hutkin has been promoted to Kim's role at TWC. Details.

► R.I.P., Gordon Davidson. The founder of the Mark Taper Forum, and Tony winner, died Sunday at his home in Los Angeles. He was 83. Full obit.

Miles Teller's new gig. The Whiplash actor will lead the voice cast for The Ark and the Aardvark, with Kung Fu Panda director John Stevenson helming the feature. But, as senior film writer Tatiana Siegel noted on Twitter: "Miles Teller fell out of La La Land because of $$$. Now he's an aardvark in an animated movie."

Don't Expect a VP Ratings Record

^Yep, there's the control booth for tonight's veep debate (fingers crossed for no mic issues). And while it's not the main event, Trump's latest controversies could push the showdown's ratings to decent figures:

Michael O'Connell's context: First, tonight's debate won't come close to the 84 million viewers who watched Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton trade barbs last week. And it likely won't even match the 70 million who tuned in to see Sarah Palin get shut down by Joe Biden in October 2008. But tonight's Mike Pence-Tim Kaine debate should get a boost from from the heightened interest in this year's wild election.

Matt writes: Ratings also will benefit from moderator Elaine Quijado of CBSN likely asking Pence to answer for Trump's increasingly ridiculous, scandal-plagued week (the tax returns; the suggestion that soldiers with PTSD aren't "strong;" Alicia Machado) and the feeling that the GOP contenders need to land a few punches to switch momentum. Prediction: 65 million total viewers.

Elsewhere in TV...

► Marvel's Iron Fist gets Netflix launch date. The latest comic book-based series on the streaming giant will premiere on March 17, 2017 in all territories. The drama will begin with 13 one-hour episodes. First look image.

► ABC adds to its game show lineup. The network has ordered a 10-episode revival of The Gong Show to be exec produced by Will Arnett. A panel of judges featuring Hollywood stars will praise, critique and gong contestants in front of a live audience.

► Syfy's Superman prequel Krypton casts lead. Newcomer Cameron Cuffe will play the Man of Steel's grandfather in the drama pilot from David S. Goyer. The project is set two generations before the destruction of Superman's home planet.

↱ Baldwin vs. New Yorker. Well, "vs." may be overselling it. But, when a writer at the venerable weekly took a critical tack after the actor's SNL Trump impression, Baldwin (jokingly? snarkily?) sent a few replies the magazine's way: "Don't I have feelings, too?" ↲

► SNL reduces ad time. Per WSJ: "Advertising time amounted to 12 minutes and 15 seconds during the kickoff episode of the show’s 42nd season, down about 28% from last season’s average of about 17 minutes, according to ad tracker iSpot.tv."

► Longtime A+E Networks exec to depart. Robert DeBitetto, a 14-year vet of the cable giant, who served as president and GM of its flagship channel at the height of its ratings success, is moving on after launching breakouts Roots and UnReal. Details.

► Pretty Little Liars boss stays put at WBTV. Marlene King has signed a new multiyear overall deal. Under the pact, she will continue to produce and develop new shows for the independent studio and its cable-focused arm Warner Horizon Television.

↱ ICYMI: The battle over Bob Hope's estate. Preservationists and L.A. city officials have halted demolition at the estate in Toluca Lake and scrambled to get a historic designation, but the realtor for Hope's daughter says the L.A. City Council botched a sale. ↲

In THR, Esq: Conan O'Brien and TBS face a lawsuit that alleges they ripped off jokes ... The future of a Straight Outta Compton lawsuit is uncertain following manager Jerry Heller's death ... Orlando Bloom's Smart Chase is at the center of Hollywood-China legal dispute.

Hollywood Preservationists Get a Win

Fans of Tinseltown history just declared victory over souvenir vendors during a TCL Chinese Theatre skirmish. Chris Gardner explains:

A slew of souvenir carts and kiosks have been removed from the sidewalk in front of Hollywood's TCL Chinese Theatre where the structures were blocking access to historic handprints, footprints and signatures of beloved stars like Jean Harlow, Bette Davis and Lana Turner.

The removal comes after a dust-up on social media kick-started by notable Hollywood documentarian Alison Martino and her Vintage Los Angeles Facebook page, which posted a photo on Sept. 30 taken by Brian Donnelly.

The image showed a retail structure selling inexpensive hats and T-shirts while covering iconic cement blocks lining Hollywood Boulevard in front of the theater. "How incredibly disrespectful," the post reads. "If Lucy and Ethel were to try and steal John Wayne's footprints today, they couldn't even find it! This is not a pretty sight TCL Chinese Theatres!"

Postscript: It remains unclear where the vendor carts will go, though a source indicated they may be relocated to the nearby Hollywood & Highland mall.

// Speaking of Hollywood history... Lots of great reader response/suggestions about The Maltese Falcon's 75th anniversary item yesterday. Yes, we'll be including more coverage of classic TV and movies and dusting off decades-old reviews and industry notes with fresh eyes. Send any ideas to newsletter@thr.com. Expect more soon. //

Today's Birthdays: Dakota Johnson, 27, Alicia Silverstone, 40, Liev Schreiber, 49, Russell Simmons, 59, Christoph Waltz, 60, Susan Sarandon, 70.